What is “Earth's Energy Imbalance” and why does it matter?
Earth's climate is determined by a delicate balance between how much of the Sun's radiative energy is absorbed in our atmosphere and at the surface, and how much thermal infrared radiation Earth emits back into space. A positive energy imbalance means the Earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up, while a negative energy imbalance will cause the planet to cool down.
Two years ago, in June 2021, NASA issued a report warning that “Earth's Energy Imbalance Has Doubled” over the period from 2005 to 2019. The report was noticed by practically no one except diligent climate scientists and a few so-called doomers.
A few weeks ago, Leon Simons, a climate researcher in the Netherlands, stated at Xitter that the 2021 NASA report estimated that Earth's energy imbalance would soon decrease due to La Niña and with a negative PDO (that’s Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an ocean circulation pattern).
But the opposite happened. Even with La Niña (which ended very recently) and with a negative PDO, there was an overall continued increase in global heat uptake. Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) remained positive, meaning heat was accumulating.
That was NOT supposed to happen.
One possible explanation, according to Simons…
In January 2020 new shipping regulations came into effect, decreasing the maximum amount of sulfur in shipping fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%. Then in 2020 we saw a rapid increase in the amount of solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean in major shipping lanes.
If this trend continues, that could mean that the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (where many of us live) will warm much more rapidly. It could also impact global and regional weather systems, like the monsoons. More extreme weather is likely.
He wrote the above in March of this year. Since then, we certainly have been experiencing extreme weather.
All indications are that the EEI — Earth's Energy Imbalance — is on the upswing, increasing at a dangerously fast pace.
On Friday, Simons posted an image that he calls “the most important graph in the world.” You can see it below.
He also said this…
♦️ July surface air temperatures are the highest for any month on record!
♦️ Global sea surface temperatures running record high for 5 months now and might continue for 10 more!
♦️ Global sea ice has been shattering record lows for two months now!
♦️ All at the same time!
We are rapidly entering a climate state not seen for millions of years.
The only sensible action is to STOP burning fossil fuels. No more half measures, no more Business As Usual.